Morgan Stanley economists said that Wednesday's consumer inflation report and the Federal Reserve meeting increased the risk of the first rate cut in September, but their baseline forecast is still for a rate cut in November. "Overall, although the median of this year's dot plot is slightly surprising, our view of the Fed this afternoon is not much different," wrote Michael Feroli, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, in the report. "We continue to believe that the first rate cut will be in November, and after this morning, the risk may be more inclined to September rather than December."